Travel operators Thomas Cook and TUI Travel are scheduled to update the markets on Wednesday and Thursday of this week, respectively, and even in the current economic gloom, analysts are expecting results from both to be upbeat.
A recent survey conducted by Dresdner Kleinwort, involving 200 travel agents, has found that the financial condition of the travel industry has benefited by strong late season bookings, less discounting, upgrades to long-haul flights, stronger sales in all-inclusive packages and an acceleration in bookings for 2009.
“While such analysis is far from bullet-proof, the thrust of all responses was encouraging despite the macro backdrop,” Dresdner noted.
Landsbanki is expecting positive news as well, anticipating reports of trading strength. “We accept that investor attention may be more focused on 2009 but again we are more confident than most…” the broker commented, noting that it is the smaller tour operators who are suffering most in these conditions.
“TUI Travel alone estimate that, between 2007 and 2009, they are reducing UK capacity by [around] 750,000 packages, [and] Thomas Cook will be a broadly similar number, giving a total fall of [around] 1.5 million packages against demand which, on highly pessimistic assumptions, could fall by 1.3 million packages,” added Landsbanki.
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